NEW YORK — Have you been naughty or nice?
Whether you are a child writing to Santa or someone a little older taking stock of 2012 and preparing resolutions for 2013, this is the time of year a lot of us reflect on our personal performance.
One yardstick is moral or religious: Was I good? But another way we judge ourselves — and another reason the very act of self-measurement feels virtuous, like cleaning your house or exercising — is on our professional accomplishments. Did I work hard? Did I work smart? Did I get a raise? Did I land a good job?
This culture of self-improvement is made manifest in the forest of self-help books, which defy the secular decline of the publishing industry, and in their more highbrow older brothers, literary best sellers like “The Power of Habit” or “How Children Succeed,” which deploy more serious science and more stylish turns of phrase to teach us how to win, or how to raise children who will.
The baby boomers were enthusiastic consumers and producers of this individualistic approach to life. They were right to be. In North America and in Europe, they came of age at a time of robust economic growth. The social and economic trends that went along with that prosperity tended both to erode many traditional institutions — the patriarchal family, the church, the geographical community — and to create more personal freedom.
The result was an era of unprecedented individual choice and unprecedented individual opportunity. You really could build it yourself, and today’s silver-haired generation did. Their children have not rebelled against those values — they have doubled down on them. Even in many European and Asian societies that had retained traditional family structures and community ties, in long defiance of the economic currents pushing against them, young people today are leading lives driven and shaped by personal choice.
That’s why our new era of slow economic growth will be a personal shock, as well as a political one. Today’s young people have been reared on optimism and the power of individual choice. But they are coming of age at a sour time, when big, impersonal, structural forces will usually trump the efforts of even the grittiest and most ingenious and hardest working of individuals.
In an influential study, Lisa B. Kahn, an economist at the Yale School of Management, in Connecticut, found that coming of age during a poor economy had a serious financial impact on the rising generation. Initially, their incomes fell between 6 percent and 7 percent for each percentage point increase in unemployment. Crucially, this penalty persisted over time: 15 years later, their incomes were still knocked back 2.5 percent.
“Taken as a whole, the results suggest that the labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy are large, negative and persistent,” Dr. Kahn writes. “This is suggestive that workers who graduate in bad economies are unable to fully shift into better jobs after the economy picks up.”
These economic headwinds are a personal tragedy — millions of them. They are also a million personal disenchantments and maybe the beginning of a tectonic cultural shift. Recent political contests in the United States and Europe have taught us to connect our beliefs about personal agency with partisan politics: The right thinks individuals are the masters of their own destiny; the left wants government to extend a helping hand.
Of course, that broad caricature overlooks the ways in which conservatives have often privileged community needs — those of family, faith and country — over personal ones, while liberals have argued that personal happiness trumps everything else. Moreover, a preference for personal explanations over collective ones — the self-help book, rather than the political movement — can be a generational matter, rather than a political one.
Consider the finding by Paola Giuliano, of the University of California, Los Angeles, and Antonio Spilimbergo, of the International Monetary Fund, in a 2009 paper, that “recessions have a long-lasting effect on individuals’ beliefs.” Dr. Giuliano and Dr. Spilimbergo found that “individuals growing up during recessions tend to believe that success in life depends more on luck than on effort.” They also “support more government redistribution, but are less confident in public institutions.”
This research suggests we could be at the dawn of a profound cultural shift. Shamus Khan, a sociologist at Columbia University, in New York, told me that a widely shared conviction that individual effort determines individual reward — that we are the beneficiaries of hard work and talent, rather than luck and circumstance — is one of the central underpinnings of our current social and political order. The plutocrats think they built it themselves; ordinary Joes think if they get the right retraining and read the right self-help books, they can become winners, too.
The individualistic ethos is tremendously appealing — especially for those of us who have been raised in it. But for today’s rising generation, which is coming of age at a time of fierce economic challenges, it is unlikely to square with their personal experience. When unemployment is high and economic growth is sluggish, whether you are naughty or nice doesn’t matter so much. What counts is how generous Santa’s presents are and whether he exists at all.
Chrystia Freeland is Editor, Thomson Reuters Digital.
Way of the World: Coming of Age at a Sour Time
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Way of the World: Coming of Age at a Sour Time
